@Aurelija's

It has been a tough week for me. Had to get away from the Markets on Wednesday to enjoy a 48-hour exam in Advanced Macroeconometrics. Pheww, THAT was en exhausting experience, I had already almost forgotten how it is to do those 48-hour take-home exams. I only had 2 of them before, but this third one was a real toughy compared to previous experiences. It is, indeed, intensive 2 days - little sleep, no sports, just coffee, tons of papers and thinking. Friday morning 4am brushing up the final pieces and - upload. The rest of the day the feeling was as if after a great party - dizzy, red eyes, no voice... lack of sleep resulted in me sleeping longer than to 6am on Saturday and Sunday. BUT IT WAS WORTH IT :)

The markets, I see, haven't changed much. The EURUSD, indeed, keeps trending up, now seriously.

Surprising? NOT at all. When everyone is so heavily positioned against EUR it doesn't take much to turn it up. It's not so much about PIIGS now, as everyone got used to the Euro cancer; it's the relative macro to be watched now. The European data, like PMIs, have showed some improvement this week. The US data has also been not bad, but the US economic surprise index has peaked, and apparently the Fed do not see a continuation of the positive news - Fed sounds to be up for more quantitative easing and low rates until 2014, and lower USD rates do not help USD much. Will that continue - the next week is crucial, with the US ISM and non-farm payrolls. If that disappoints then it may be the period of positive surprises from the US is coming to an end. This, if data is not a huge miss, may gradually lift the EURUSD further.

If the "muddling through" continues without big new shocks we are back to 2009 with plentiful liquidity and room for risky asset performance. With the EUR and USD rates stuck at the bottom for at least two years it's difficult to see how the asset managers are not tempted not chase a higher yield anywhere from US equities to Emerging Markets FX. Getting more and more bullish.